Chest radiograph-based artificial intelligence predictive model for mortality in community-acquired pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Chest radiograph (CXR) is a basic diagnostic test in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) with prognostic value. We developed a CXR-based artificial intelligence (AI) model (CAP AI predictive Engine: CAPE) and prospectively evaluated its discrimination for 30-day mortality. METHODS: Deep-learning model using convolutional neural network (CNN) was trained with a retrospective cohort of 2235 CXRs from 1966 unique adult patients admitted for CAP from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2019. A single-centre prospective cohort between 11 May 2020 and 15 June 2020 was analysed for model performance. CAPE mortality risk score based on CNN analysis of the first CXR performed for CAP was used to determine the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for 30-day mortality. RESULTS: 315 inpatient episodes for CAP occurred, with 30-day mortality of 19.4% (n=61/315). Non-survivors were older than survivors (mean (SD)age, 80.4 (10.3) vs 69.2 (18.7)); more likely to have dementia (n=27/61 vs n=58/254) and malignancies (n=16/61 vs n=18/254); demonstrate higher serum C reactive protein (mean (SD), 109 mg/L (98.6) vs 59.3 mg/L (69.7)) and serum procalcitonin (mean (SD), 11.3 (27.8) µg/L vs 1.4 (5.9) µg/L). The AUC for CAPE mortality risk score for 30-day mortality was 0.79 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.85, p<0.001); Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) 0.80 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.86, p<0.001); Confusion of new onset, blood Urea nitrogen, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, 65 (CURB-65) score 0.76 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.81, p<0.001), respectively. CAPE combined with CURB-65 model has an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.88, p<0.001). The best performing model was CAPE incorporated with PSI, with an AUC of 0.84 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.89, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: CXR-based CAPE mortality risk score was comparable to traditional pneumonia severity scores and improved its discrimination when combined.

A chest radiography-based artificial intelligence deep-learning model to predict severe Covid-19 patient outcomes: the CAPE (Covid-19 AI Predictive Engine) Model (preprint)

Abstract Keywords: predictive model; prognosis; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; Deep-learning; Artificial intelligence; Chest radiograph Background: Chest radiography may be used together with deep-learning models to prognosticate COVID-19 patient outcomes Purpose: To evaluate the performance of a deep-learning model for the prediction of severe patient outcomes from COVID-19 pneumonia on chest radiographs. Methods: A deep-learning model (CAPE: Covid-19 AI Predictive Engine) was trained on 2337 CXR images including 2103 used only for validation while training. The prospective test set consisted of CXR images (n=70) obtained from RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia patients between 1 January and 30 April 2020 in a single center. The radiographs were analyzed by the AI model. Model performance was obtained by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Results: In the prospective test set, the mean age of the patients was 46 (+/- 16.2) years (84.2% male). The deep-learning model accurately predicted outcomes of ICU admission/mortality from COVID-19 pneumonia with an AUC of 0.79 (95% CI 0.79-0.96). Compared to traditional risk scoring systems for pneumonia based upon laboratory and clinical parameters, the model matched the EWS and MulBTSA risk scoring systems and outperformed CURB-65. Conclusions: A deep-learning model was able to predict severe patient outcomes (ICU admission and mortality) from COVID-19 on chest radiographs.